Weather Intelligence
Daily temperature markets, priced from the forecast — not from the order book.
Weather Intelligence prices Kalshi's daily high-temperature contracts against an independent meteorological forecast. It takes the Open-Meteo forecast high for the market's city, models the error around it as a normal distribution that widens with lead time, and reads off the probability of the temperature event — then compares that to what the market is charging for the same outcome.
Under the hood
- 01
Take the forecast
The Open-Meteo forecast high for the market's station is fetched for the contract's day — a real meteorological number, not a market-derived one.
- 02
Model the error
A normal error is placed around the forecast, its width growing with lead time, and the probability mass past the market's threshold becomes the estimate.
- 03
Compare to the market
The forecast-implied probability is set against the Kalshi price for the same threshold, with confidence scaled by how far out the forecast is.
What you get from it
Weather is forecastable
Temperature is one of the few market underlyings with a genuine, public physical forecast. That makes an independent price unusually well-founded.
Lead time, made honest
A seven-day forecast is not a one-day forecast. Confidence widens with the horizon, so a far-out estimate never wears a near-term certainty.
Threshold-aware
The model reads the exact threshold each contract settles on, so the probability answers the market's real question, not a rounded version of it.
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Weather Intelligence, live — right now.
Free to use, with no account. Open the tool and read the market for yourself.