Probability History Charts
How a market's odds actually got to where they are — plotted, with the studies that read them.
A prediction market's probability is a time series, and the shape of that series is where the information is. The probability-history chart plots it on a fixed 0–100 axis so a market that drifted 48→52 never looks like one that swung 5→95, overlays the moving averages and bands you add, and stacks volume beneath — the full picture of how conviction moved, not just where it landed.
Under the hood
- 01
Pin the axis to reality
Probability is an absolute quantity, so the y-axis is fixed to 0–100. A gentle drift and a violent swing are drawn at their true scale, never auto-fit to look the same.
- 02
Read gaps as gaps
Where a venue published nothing, the line breaks rather than drawing a flat stretch the market never traded. A hole in the data is shown as a hole.
- 03
Add the studies you want
Layer moving averages, an EMA, a Bollinger envelope, and choose the window — 1H to max — with a range selector that keeps volume and oscillator panes in lockstep.
What you get from it
Trend, not just level
Whether a market is stretched, reverting or trending is a question about its recent path. The chart answers it against the market's own history.
Volume in context
A move on heavy volume and the same move on none are different events. The volume histogram beneath the price makes the distinction at a glance.
Every timeframe
From an intraday tick to the whole life of the contract, one chart with a range you drag — the terminal picks time or date tick labels to match.
Related tools
Prediction Market Terminal
Every Polymarket market, live, in one arrangeable workspace.
Prediction Market Scanner
Surface the markets that are actually doing something — ranked, explained and auditable.
Sports Intelligence
An independent win probability from team form — set against what the market is paying.
Probability History Charts, live — right now.
Free to use, with no account. Open the tool and read the market for yourself.