Sports Intelligence
An independent win probability from team form — set against what the market is paying.
Sports Intelligence prices game outcomes from the real world rather than from the market: an MLB win probability built with a log5 model on each team's situational form — the home side's home record against the visitor's road record — then compared, side by side, against the Polymarket price for the same game. It is an independent estimate you can disagree with, with every input shown.
Under the hood
- 01
Take real inputs
Season records and home/road splits are pulled from the ESPN scoreboard — the same form a handicapper starts from, sourced and stamped.
- 02
Price the game
A log5 model combines the home team's home win rate with the away team's road win rate into an independent probability for each side of the game.
- 03
Set it against the market
The estimate is matched to the Polymarket market for the same game, and the difference is stated in probability points.
What you get from it
A number the market didn't give you
Most 'edges' are just restatements of the price. This is an estimate built from outside the market, so it can genuinely disagree with it.
Auditable, not oracular
Every factor behind a probability — the records, the splits, the method — is on the card. You can reconstruct the number or reject it.
Provenance on the comparison
The matched market shows its source, kind and match confidence, because a comparison you can't trace isn't research.
Related tools
Prediction Market Terminal
Every Polymarket market, live, in one arrangeable workspace.
Prediction Market Scanner
Surface the markets that are actually doing something — ranked, explained and auditable.
Probability History Charts
How a market's odds actually got to where they are — plotted, with the studies that read them.
Sports Intelligence, live — right now.
Free to use, with no account. Open the tool and read the market for yourself.