Prediction Market Analytics
Liquidity, volatility, spreads and fair value — the quality of a price, quantified.
A probability is only as good as the market printing it, and Predictra's analytics measure that quality directly: a liquidity score and depth tier for every market, realized volatility of the probability series, spread and turnover, and — where a market has a structural model — an independent fair-value estimate with the edge against the price. All deterministic, all with their inputs on show.
Under the hood
- 01
Score every book
Spread, depth, volume and turnover fold into a 0–100 liquidity score and a depth tier — deep, adequate, thin, illiquid — so a market's tradeability is legible at a glance.
- 02
Measure the movement
Realized volatility is computed from the probability series itself, distinguishing a market that grinds from one that whips even when both sit at the same level.
- 03
Estimate fair value
Where a structural model applies — a Black-Scholes threshold, a weather forecast — an independent fair value is computed and the edge against the price is shown.
What you get from it
Know if a price is real
A striking probability on an illiquid, wide, stale book is not the same signal as one on a deep, tight market. The analytics tell the two apart.
Edge, with its derivation
A fair-value estimate carries the full rule-based derivation and every input, so an edge is a calculation you can check rather than a claim you must take.
Flags that warn you off
Wide spread, no book, low volume, stale — each market wears the liquidity flags that would otherwise be the reason a good-looking trade doesn't fill.
Related tools
Prediction Market Terminal
Every Polymarket market, live, in one arrangeable workspace.
Prediction Market Scanner
Surface the markets that are actually doing something — ranked, explained and auditable.
Probability History Charts
How a market's odds actually got to where they are — plotted, with the studies that read them.
Prediction Market Analytics, live — right now.
Free to use, with no account. Open the tool and read the market for yourself.